The 2020 Southeast Asia typhoon season is predicted to be more active than usual, according to an outlook released on May 28 by the typhoon prediction system of ANSO MISSPAD project. The Philippine Islands and the South China Sea region will be mainly affected.

Typhoon activities will be more frequent in the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea this summer, leading to flooding rain, damaging winds, and typhoon surges.

According to the FGOALS-f2_v1.3 typhoon seasonal prediction system, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) will extend more westward, due to the decaying phase of the weak Central-Pacific El Nino event. As a result, the probabilities of typhoon events will increase with the WPSH westward extension this summer. The total number of active typhoons in Southeast Asia will be slightly higher than usual, and the intensity of typhoon is similar to normal years. Specifically, the number of landfall typhoons is expected to increase by 8% and 5% in the Philippines and Vietnam, respectively. Precaution is suggested in these regions. The number of typhoons landing in Myanmar, Thailand and Cambodia is lower than the average for 2020 summer.

Figure 1. The anomalous percentage of typhoons landfalls in Southeast Asia for the summer of 2020 （JJA）, predicted by FGOALS-f2 v1.3, a dynamical-ensemble seasonal
prediction system of typhoon.

More Information:
-The Multi-model-Integrated Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction and Application in Disaster Risk Reduction
-The FGOALS-f2 Subseasonal to Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System

Source:
Jinxiao Li, Ke Wei and Qing Bao Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences