ANSO Research Progress on Dynamic Modeling of COVID-19 in the Belt and Road Countries

Prevention and Control of COVID-19 in Kazakhstan and Pakistan

06 04, 2023

On March 15th 2023, the research team of the ANSO collaborative research project entitled “Prevention and Control of COVID-19 in Kazakhstan and Pakistan”published an article with the title “Dynamic variations in COVID-19 with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Kazakhstan and Pakistan” online in the journal Infectious Diseases of Poverty (IF=10.485), making progress on the dynamic modeling of COVID-19 epidemics in Kazakhstan and Pakistan.

This project was led by Prof. Zhengli Shi from Wuhan Institute of Virology, CAS, and carried out in collaboration with Dr. Zengyun Hu from Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Dr. Shizhu Li from the National Institute of Parasitic Disease, China CDC, Dr. Qianqian cui from Ningxia University, as well as partners from University of Agriculture Faisalabad, the Islamia University of Bahawalpur in Pakistan, and Kazakh Agrotechnical University in Kazakhstan.

The prevention and control of COVID-19 is a common challenge of countries all over the world. The collaborative research team selected two representative countries in South and Central Asia as examples, and constructed a disease dynamic model of COVID-19 using ordinary differential equation. Based on this model, the study explored the prevalence and transmission of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Pakistan and Kazakhstan under scenarios with different contact, quarantine and test rates, and analyzed the influence of these variations on the COVID-19 epidemics in the two countries. This model can be applied to improve the accuracy of predicting future changes and trends of COVID-19. The research findings provided scientific basis for making and adjusting policy of COVID-19 prevention and control in Pakistan and Kazakhstan, and laid foundation for development of the COVID-19 precaution modeling system in the two countries. This study is a specific case of China’s reinforced international scientific cooperation in the fight against COVID-19. It reflects the active role that ANSO has been played in dealing with the challenge of emerging infectious disease and in the maintenance of public health and safety across the Belt and Road.

Figure 1: Simulation and prediction of daily new confirmed cases and cumulative confirmed cases Kazakhstan

(Link of the publication：https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-023-01072-5)

Source: Hu Zengyun, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, huzengyun@ms.xjb.ac.cn; HU Ben，Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, huben@wh.iov.cn

Cover Page：Mat Nepo