The forecast released by the ANSO-MISSPAD Project in March 2023 shows that hilly areas in Nepal will receive more precipitation (above normal) than usual this Summer (June-July-August); it is expected to be below average for most of the Southern part and the Western high mountain areas. The occurrence frequency of extreme precipitation is expected to be higher in central Nepal.
According to the latest forecast released by the FGOALS-f2 seamless prediction system of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, most areas across the hilly regions of Nepal, including large mountainous areas of Central and Eastern Nepal, will receive more precipitation than usual this summer (2023, JJA), which may lead to higher chances of landslides and flash flood in the country. However, the southern part and western High-Mountain region will be experiencing less precipitation, which may impact the paddy production this year in the southern part and risk of drought in west Nepal (Figure 1). Moreover, extreme precipitation events will occur across most parts of Nepal, with higher frequency over some areas of central, eastern, and western Nepal, which may lead to flash floods (Figure 2).
Figure 1. The precipitation anomaly percentage (%) of Nepal predicted by ANSO-MISSPAD for Summer 2023
Figure 2. The extreme precipitation frequency prediction for Nelal by ANSO-MISSPAD for Summer (June-July-August)
Furthermore, the large-scale real-time forecast released by the ANSO-MISSPAD Project in March 2023 shows that most parts of South Asia will be drier than usual this Summer (June-July-August), and only north-western and some parts of the eastern will be wetter than previous years.
According to the latest forecast released by the FGOALS-f2 sub-seasonal to seasonal seamless prediction system of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Figure 3), this summer (JJA, 2023), the central part of South Asia will get less precipitation than usual. The eastern part will receive a bit more rain this summer. The southwestern part of Nepal will receive less rainfall, which may affect the western region's paddy cropping date and production. Sri Lanka will have near-normal precipitation this summer. Most of Pakistan shows less rain, indicating the regional drought events, and highly recommended to reserve more water for agriculture production and industry.
Figure 3. The precipitation anomaly percentage (%) of South Asia predicted by ANSO-MISSPAD for Summer 2023
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Copywriter: Bikash Nepal, Yao Tang, Yalan Fan, and Dipendra Lamichhane
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Picture: Bikash Nepal, Yao Tang, Dipendra Lamichhane
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